POLITICAL DYNAMICS OF THE 2024 NORTH SUMATRA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION: IMPLICATIONS AND CHALLENGES

Batara Harahap

doi:10.36526/sosioedukasi.v15i1.7414

Authors

Batara Harahap Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36526/sosioedukasi.v15i1.7414

Keywords:

North Sumatra Gubernatorial Election 2024, Identity Politics, Social Media, Local Democracy.

Abstract

This study analyzes the political dynamics of the 2024 North Sumatra gubernatorial election (Pilgub Sumut), exploring its implications and challenges as a reflection of local democracy amidst identity politics (Batak, Malay, Javanese ethnicities), social polarization, and digital media disruption. Methodology: Employing a qualitative case study approach, data were collected through in-depth interviews with political actors and observers, field observations, and document analysis from KPU and Bawaslu. Data validity was ensured through source triangulation. Findings reveal five key insights: (1) the dominance of pragmatic coalitions based on candidate electability, (2) the instrumentalization of identity politics as a mobilization strategy with the risk of social fragmentation, (3) the dual role of social media—effective in engaging youth voters yet vulnerable to disinformation, (4) persistent structural challenges such as money politics, and (5) a shift in voter behavior towards rational considerations based on candidate track records. Conclusion: The 2024 election illustrates the dilemma of electoral democracy where identity-based tactics and pragmatic interests marginalize substantive issues (e.g., Lake Toba deforestation, gender inequality). The study underscores the need for strengthening digital literacy, enforcing anti-transactional politics laws, and promoting inclusive policy-based reconciliation to transform identity politics into policy accountability.

References

Abdillah, F. M., & Zulhazmi, A. Z. (2021). Kampanye Digital, Politik Lokal, dan Media Sosial. IQTIDA : Journal of Da’wah and Communication, 1(1), 57–75. https://doi.org/10.28918/iqtida.v1i1.3752

Adam, Y. F. (2022). Perjuangan Umat Islam dalam Gerakan Front Anti Komunis di Indonesia, 1954-1958. Tsaqofah, 20(2), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.32678/tsaqofah.v20i2.6700

Amal, M. K. (2021). Politik Identitas dan Konflik Etnis di Sumatera Utara. Yayasan Pustaka Obor Indonesia.

Andzani, D., Virgin, D., Pristica, B., & Dwihadiah, D. L. (2024). Analisis Peran Media Sosial dalam Proses Mediatisasi Politik: Perspektif Komunikasi Politik dan Partisipasi Publik. JMBI UNSRAT: Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Bisnis Dan Inovasi Universitas Sam Ratulangi, 11(1), 1003–1011. https://doi.org/10.35794/jmbi.v11i1.55526

Aspinall, E., & Berenschot, W. (2019). Democracy for Sale: Elections, Clientelism, and the State in Indonesia. Cornell University Press.

Campbell, A., Converse, P., Miller, W., & Stokes, D. (1960). The American Voter. John Wiley & Sons.

Castells, M. (2012). Networks of Outrage and Hope: Social Movements in the Internet Age. Polity Press.

Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. Harper.

Hutapea, E. K., Santoso, P., Alexandra, H. F. S., Sukendro, A., & Widodo, P. (2023). Tantangan dan Upaya Penanganan Politik Identitas pada Pemilu 2024. Jurnal Kewarganegaraan, 7(1), 424–434. https://doi.org/10.31316/JK.V7I1.4811

Izzati, F., Asyifa, R. M., Wicaksono, M. A., Muflikhah, M., Azizah, D. N., & Nugroho, J. T. (2025). Peran Media Sosial dalam Preferensi Pemilih: Studi Kampanye Pemilihan Umum. Journal of Governance and Public Administration, 2(2), 303–311. https://doi.org/10.70248/jogapa.v2i2.1631

Junaidi. (2012). Pemilihan Gubernur dan Wakil Gubernur dalam Kerangka Otonomi Daerah dan Demokratisasi. Jurnal Konstitusi, 1(1), 1–20.

Katz, R. S., & Mair, P. (1995). Changing Models of Party Organization and Party Democracy. Party Politics, 1(1), 5–28. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068895001001001

Kumalasari, I., Akbariah, L., Natasha, C. E., & Nashihah, D. (2023). Mengukur Sentimen ASN: Tinjauan Kepuasan ASN terhadap Perencanaa Strategis dalam Pembangunan Infrastruktur Pemerintah Daerah di Kabupaten Pamekasan. Journal of Social and Economics Research, 5(2), 285–292. https://doi.org/10.54783/jser.v5i2.134

Kurniawan, Moh. A. El. (2024). 4 Partai Besar Dukung Penuh Bobby Nasution di Pilgub Sumut 2024, Yakin Menang? Narasi TV. https://narasi.tv/read/narasi-daily/bobby-nasution-maju-pilgub-sumut

Lipset, S. M., & Rokkan, S. (1990). Cleavage Structures, Party Systems, and Voter Alignments. The Free Press. https://janda.org/c24/Readings/Lipset&Rokkan/Lipset&Rokkan.htm

McCombs, M. E., & Shaw, D. L. (1972). The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media. Public Opinion Quarterly, 36(2), 176–187.

Mufliha, F., & Jannah, D. Al. (2024). Sinkronisasi KPU dan Bawaslu dalam Penanganan Politik Uang untuk Mewujudkan Pemilu yang Demokratis di Indonesia. JIIP : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pendidikan, 7(3), 3135–3140. https://doi.org/10.54371/jiip.v7i3.3765

Nainggolan, B. (2024). Hasil Pilkada Sumut: Tiga Penyebab Kemenangan Telak Bobby Nasution. Kompas. https://www.kompas.id/artikel/hasil-pilkada-sumut-tiga-penyebab-kemenangan-telak-bobby-nasution

Padilah, K., & Irwansyah, I. (2023). Solusi terhadap Money Politik Pemilu Serentak Tahun 2024: Mengidentifikasi tantangan dan Strategi Penanggulangannya. Jurnal EDUCATIO: Jurnal Pendidikan Indonesia, 9(1), 236. https://doi.org/10.29210/1202322821

Sitorus, H. J., Tanoyo, M., & Irwansyah. (2024). Polarisasi Politik Melalui Interaksi Sosial di Instagram: Studi Kasus Pemilu 2024 di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Komunikasi Dan Media Sosial, 4(2), 389.

Surbakti, R. (2023). Dinamika Elektoral di Sumatera Utara: Loyalitas Versus Rasionalitas. Kemitraan Bagi Pembaruan Tata Pemerintahan.

Verba, S., Schlozman, K. L., & Brady, H. E. (1995). Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics. Harvard University Press.

Wandini, P., Rivaldi, A., & Siregar, Y. D. (2024). Dinamika Sosial Kehidupan Multikultural di Kota Medan Era Kontemporer. Polyscopia, 1(4), 229–235. https://doi.org/10.57251/polyscopia.v1i4.1439

Ward, S. J., & Gibson, R. K. (2019). Political Parties and Digital Media: The Challenge of Online Echo Chambers. Proceedings of the Weizenbaum Conference.

Widadio, N. A., & Irham, M. (2024). Quick count Pilkada 2024: Mengapa jagoan PDIP keok di ‘kandang banteng’ Jateng dan Sumut? BBC News Indonesia. https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/articles/ceqx3p7z0g7o

Yunus, F. M., Yasin, T. H. M., & Rijal, S. (2023). Politik Identitas dan Politisasi Agama Dalam Konteks Pemilu di Indonesia. Jurnal Sosiologi Dialektika Sosial, 9(2), 121–137. https://doi.org/10.29103/jsds.v9i2.12590