PREDIKSI KASUS AKTIF KUMULATIF COVID-19 DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN MODEL REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA
Abstract
Regresi linier berganda digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi hubungan antara variabel respons dengan minimal dua variabel prediktor. Variabel respons merupakan variabel yang dipengaruhi, sedangkan variabel prediktor merupakan variabel yang mempengaruhi. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah melakukan prediksi kasus aktif kumulatif dengan variabel prediktor kasus positif kumulatif, kesembuhan kumulatif, dan korban meninggal kumulatif pada kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia sejak 1 Mei 2021 hingga 26 Agustus 2021 menggunakan metode regresi linier berganda. Hasil penelitian ini menghasilkan prediksi dengan MAPE sebesar 2,11%. Prediksi yang dilakukan memiliki akurasi yang sangat baik karena memiliki nilai galat yang sangat kecil. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut disimpulkan bahwa akan terjadi penurunan kasus aktif kumulatif COVID-19 pada 1-5 September 2021 dengan penurunan terbanyak pada 5 September sebesar 17079 orang.
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